Breaking from recent trends, nobel Peace Prize winner will stay in leverage, as analysts warn of renewed conflicts. Ethiopia ’ s Prosperity Party has comfortably won another parliamentary majority in this month ’ s elections, with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed set to keep the top job. The news has sparked debate among key stakeholders.

Highlights

To put this in perspective, analysts point to a number of relevant factors.

The Nobel Peace Prize winner had been widely expected to win the national elections as his Prosperity Party candidates campaigned on the government ’ s economic record and on improving food security in a country that has experienced several famines in the past.

Abiy, who was appointed in 2018 following mass protests against the long-ruling Ethiopian People ’ s Revolutionary Democratic Front ( EPRDF) coalition, created the Prosperity Party the following year.

Alongside the primary story, the party won more than 90 percent of the available seats in the last parliamentary elections in 2021.

The Ethiopian leader received pervasive praise at home and approximately the world for freeing journalists, activists, and other political prisoners and revoking bans on many political parties following taking power.

Standout Performances

Experts and analysts have begun weighing in on what this means going forward.

He was honoured with the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 for ending hostilities with neighbouring Eritrea.

Against this backdrop, but his opponents and human rights activists accuse his government of reversing those gains in ⁠recent years by detaining journalists and shutting down civil society groups.

Against this backdrop, ethiopia has faced years of violent unrest in several of the country ’ s ethnically organised regions, including Abiy ’ s native Oromia, Ethiopia ’ s largest, and the second-biggest region, Amhara, where a militia known as Fano has seized swathes of the countryside since 2023.

Of particular significance is the fact that a civil war in the northern Tigray region from 2020-2022, which stemmed from a breakdown in relations between Abiy and the Tigrayan leaders who dominated national politics before his rise, ⁠resulted in hundreds of thousands of deaths, researchers say.

Numbers

For many, the real significance lies not just in what happened — but in what comes next.

Though a 2022 peace deal ended the conflict, Tigray ’ s foremost political party relocated in May to reassert control over the region ’ s political administration in violation of the agreement.

Of particular significance is the fact that that has led Ethiopian sources and analysts to warn of the risk of fresh unrest.

At the same time, the elections were not held in Tigray, one of Ethiopia ’ s 12 regions, because of what the electoral board called “ unfavourable conditions ” there.

Meanwhile, sources familiar with the matter indicate that abiy ’ s government projects economic growth of over 10 percent in 2026, one of the fastest rates in Africa.

Looking Ahead

For now, the situation continues to evolve, with no definitive resolution in sight. Those closely following the issue are preparing for further developments in what has become a significant and consequential story.