A major development emerged this week as uS-Iran deal under strain as Kuwait and Bahrain condemn Iranian attacks in response to US strikes. Iran has launched attacks on Bahrain and Kuwait after the United States struck five Iranian targets, escalating tensions and threatening the fragile ceasefire agreed by the two sides earlier this month.

Global Context

Tracing the events that led here provides important context for what follows.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps ( IRGC) confirmed the attacks on Sunday, saying it launched ballistic missiles and drones at the US Ali Al Salem airbase in Kuwait and the US Fifth Naval Fleet at Port Salman in Bahrain.

Bahrain condemned the attacks, saying they violated its sovereignty and undermined “ opportunities for de-escalation and stability in the region ”, while Kuwait described the “ repeated heinous Iranian aggressions ” as a “ flagrant violation of its sovereignty ”.

As the story continues to develop, uS Central Command ( CENTCOM) said its navy and air force “ conducted strikes tonight on 10 Iranian military targets at multiple locations in and near the Strait of Hormuz ”, saying the attacks were a response to an Iranian drone attack on the Kiku oil tanker.

International Response

The reaction from the broader community of observers has been significant.

The weekend attacks come after the US struck Iran on Friday following drone attacks on vessels near the Strait of Hormuz.

Meanwhile, sources familiar with the matter indicate that iran has said vessels transiting the strait can only use its designated route and warned that ships using any other routes would be violating the ceasefire agreement.

In a detail that has not gone unnoticed, “ If that happens, the Islamic Republic of Iran will no longer exist! ” Iran ’ s Ministry of Foreign Affairs blasted the US strikes on its monitoring and surveillance facilities on its southern coast.

Regional Impact

The story's impact will be felt at multiple levels — local, national, and beyond.

Speaking in Iraq on Sunday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi reported that “ the Strait of Hormuz remains under the total oversight and management of Iran throughout the 30 coming days, and after all obstacles are removed, the total capacity of the waterway will be restored. ” “ Any new developments will result in exacerbating the situation, and also delaying the opening of the strait.

It has also emerged that he called for all parties to honour their obligations under the MoU, otherwise it will derailed. ” The MoU approved by the US and Iran extended a ceasefire in their war that began with US-Israeli attacks on Iran on February 28, giving both sides 60 days to negotiate an end to the fighting.

Against this backdrop, article 5 of the MoU states that Iran will “ make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels ” through the strait during the 60 days.

Alongside the primary story, it states that Iran and Oman, along with other Gulf states, will discuss the future administration of the strait.

Compounding the significance of these events, wolfgang Pusztai, a defence analyst, told Al Jazeera that even as neither the US nor Iran have an interest in a bigger escalation, “ there is a risk that this might happen unintentionally. ” “ If there are several hits in residential areas, if a larger number of civilians are getting killed in the Arab Gulf states, if an American base is hit severely so that the American soldiers are killed, this might easily get out of control, ” he declared.

What Comes Next

The implications of what has transpired will take time to fully understand. In the interim, this development stands as a significant moment in a story that is still being written.