The Pakistan Meteorological Department ( PMD) has issued an alert for glacial lake outburst floods ( Glofs) for Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, predicting that soaring temperatures are likely to persist until the first week of July. “ This significant warming will substantially accelerate snow and ice melt in the glaciated valleys of these regions, ” the Met Office declared in the alert issued late on Friday. The report has prompted swift reactions from officials and advocacy groups alike.

Context and History

To put this in perspective, analysts point to a number of relevant factors.

It declared that consequently, the water level in the river streams was likely to remain high, existing glacial lakes may rapidly expand with an increase in their water levels, and new glacial lakes were likely to form due to the high volume of melted water.

The Met Office further said that the rapid expansion of glacial lakes could destabilise their natural ice or moraine dams, potentially triggering Glof incidents.

Of particular significance is the fact that the weather conditions can trigger heavy mud and debris flows down mountain slopes, with an increase in the likelihood of landslides in steep terrains, the PMD said.

Reactions and Responses

Experts and analysts have begun weighing in on what this means going forward.

It advised residents and visitors: to stay away from riverbanks, stream beds, and local nullahs; to refrain from camping, trekking, or staying near riverbanks, streams, glacial lakes and narrow mountain valleys; and avoid steep slopes and unstable terrain where melting snow could trigger landslides or debris flows.

Adding to the complexity of the situation, nDMA issues landslide alert for mountainous areas in north Separately, the National Disaster Management Authority ’ s ( NDMA) National Emergency Operation Centre ( NEOC) issued a landslide alert for GB, upper KP and Azad Jammu and Kashmir ( AJK) from June 27 to July 3.

According to those with knowledge of the situation, noting that the current weather conditions were in line with the weather forecast issued by NEOC a few months ago, the NDMA indicated there was an increase in risk of landslides in mountainous areas due to viable intermittent rains and rapidly melting glaciers.

Policy Implications

This marks the beginning of a process whose full implications are yet to be determined.

“ Exercise special caution while travelling on mountain streams, valleys and slopes adjacent to glaciers, ” it stressed, urging to avoid unnecessary travel as landslides may temporarily affect connecting roads, electricity and communications systems.

What has become increasingly clear is that the NDMA also issued an alert for increased risk of glacier melting in northern and mountainous regions from June 27 to July 3, Radio Pakistan reported.

Significantly, the NDMA advised the public to avoid unnecessary travel near rivers, streams and glacial zones and to strictly follow official weather advisories and safety instructions.

Further developments have shed additional light on the matter. kP PDMA orders DCs to monitor vulnerable sites In reaction to the PMD alert, the KP PDMA issued directions for deputy commissioners ( DCs) of Upper and Lower Chitral, Dir Upper, Swat, Upper and Lower Kohistan, and Mansehra for precautionary measures.

In what observers are describing as a key detail, earlier this month, the Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Comm­ission ( Suparco) identified 130 potentially dangerous glacial lakes with possible risks to

The Road Ahead

The full consequences of what has taken place will unfold over time. For now, the story stands as a reminder of the complexity and consequence of the issues involved — and the importance of continued attention.