Marking a significant moment in an ongoing story, a war meant to isolate Iran instead deepened Gulf pragmatism and strengthened support for diplomacy. Doha, Qatar – Gulf states have welcomed a breakthrough agreement between the United States and Iran to end a war they never wanted. Experts and analysts have been quick to weigh in.

Context

Understanding what led to this point requires a closer examination of the circumstances involved.

When Israel and the US launched strikes on Iran on February 28 – and Tehran responded by attacking Gulf states – they were again forced to reassess their relationship with their neighbour.

“ The ongoing conflict … compelled the Gulf states to pursue a more pragmatic relationship with Tehran, one that will include enhanced dialogue to deter conflict, ” Farah al-Qawasmi, a researcher at the Gulf Studies Center at Qatar University, told Al Jazeera.

Meanwhile, sources familiar with the matter indicate that “ An agreement between the two parties is being [ highly] advocated by the Gulf states in [ an] attempt to prevent and contain regional conflicts, ” al-Qawasmi said.

Global Analysis

Specialists in the field say the implications extend further than initially apparent.

Shortly after the US and Iran agreed in 2015 to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Move ( JCPOA) – putting guardrails on Tehran ’ s nuclear programme – Gulf states remained sceptical about their neighbour.

Notably, the current war has only heightened these suspicions, but it has also seen regional states seek diplomacy with Tehran rather than military confrontation, despite Iran directly attacking Gulf cities.

Observers have also noted that pinfold points out that Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz via drones and missiles, not nuclear weapons, making dealing with that threat a priority for Gulf states rather than Tehran ’ s nuclear programme.

Impact

The broader implications of this development are already coming into focus.

Gulf states will want a more comprehensive agreement between Iran and the US, rather than the nuclear-focused JCPOA, said Pinfold.

Meanwhile, sources familiar with the matter indicate that “ The today problem is Iran ’ s use of drones and proxies to destabilise and undermine the sovereignty of Gulf states, but moreover states throughout the region. ” US Secretary of State Marco Rubio ’ s three-day tour of the Gulf, which ends Thursday, is seen as a way of allaying these fears and assuring the GCC that Tehran will not be strengthened by the agreement.

In a detail that has not gone unnoticed, in its contribution as a co-mediator, Qatar is essentially representing the GCC and their interests during the talks, even as articles five and six of the Iran-US MoU place Gulf states at the centre of the agreement.

In a detail that has not gone unnoticed, among the biggest concerns for the GCC are the future of the Strait of Hormuz, with Tehran demanding tolls on shipping, and calls for the creation of a regional investment fund for Iran.

What has become increasingly clear is that that led to a “ maximum pressure era ” that carried a period of brinkmansh

The Outlook

This remains an active and fast-moving story. With significant stakes and wide-ranging implications, the next few days are expected to bring greater clarity on several outstanding questions.