Ukraine says its ‘ lockdown ’ strategy is working as it disrupts Russian supply lines. Ukraine said it reclaimed more of its territory than it lost during May, reversing a Russian trend of monthly net gains. Observers say this could mark a turning point in how the issue is addressed.

Notable Moments

What is happening now can be traced back to a series of decisions and events that preceded it.

“ The ratio of liberated and lost territories is almost 100 square kilometres ( 40 square miles) in our favour, ” wrote Ukrainian commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskii on his Telegram messaging channel.

Ukrainian defence developments outlet Militarnyi estimated net gains slightly higher, at 120 sq km ( 46 sq miles), citing sources within the military.

Notably, the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank using open source geolocated information, assessed Ukrainian gains higher still, saying Russia had seized or infiltrated 40 sq km ( 15 sq miles) in May but lost control of relating to 280 sq km ( 108 sq miles).

Performance Analysis

Analysts are now examining what this development means in both the short and long term.

The ISW believed Ukraine actually reversed Russian gains in April, when it estimated Moscow ’ s gains at 28 sq km ( 11 sq miles) of Ukrainian land and lost 116 sq km ( 45 sq miles).

Adding further dimension to the story, however, Russia was successful on one part of the front Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported on June 10 that Russian forces had advanced into eastern Konstiantynivka, the southernmost of a “ fortress belt ” of four cities in the eastern region of Donetsk.

In what observers are describing as a key detail, ukraine declares its battlefield achievements are thanks to a strategy of disrupting Russian supply lines by striking fuel and ammunition in warehouses and in transit.

By the Numbers

The downstream effects of this situation are being assessed by officials and experts alike.

Weeks of attacks in the southern regions of Kherson and Zaporizhia reduced Russian military traffic by more than 70 percent along the M-14 motorway, the main east-west route, said Robert Brovdi, commander of Ukraine ’ s Unmanned Systems Forces.

At the same time, on June 9, as about 50 Russian fuel and ammunition trucks were routed to the E97, Ukrainian forces ambushed and destroyed some of them at Armyansk, commander Dmitry Filatov told Suspilne Radio.

According to those with knowledge of the situation, the Ukrainian underground group Atesh, which operates in Crimea, said Russian units were abandoning their positions on the Kinburn Spit because they were running out of food and fuel.

As the story continues to develop, ukrainian defenders are also reportedly becoming more adept at shooting down Russian Shahed drones with their own interceptor drones.

According to those with knowledge of the situation, although Russia launched 25 percent more Shaheds in May compared to April, shoot-downs incr

What Comes Next

As the full scope of these developments becomes clear, questions about what comes next remain at the forefront. Officials and analysts agree that the situation warrants continued close attention.