Marking a significant moment in an ongoing story, experts say Moscow is seeking arms revenue and further diplomatic influence. Ethiopia has received 12 Russian Su-35 fighter jets and will acquire four S-400 air defence batteries, in a deal experts say strengthens Moscow ’ s foothold in the Horn of Africa while bolstering Addis Ababa ’ s military amid conflict at home and tensions with neighbouring Eritrea. Experts and analysts have been quick to weigh in.

Key Plays

The broader picture helps clarify the significance of what has unfolded.

“ Russia and Ethiopia stand together in international affairs. ” Experts say the agreement builds on decades of military cooperation, offering Moscow arms revenue and diplomatic influence whereas allowing Ethiopia to strengthen its armed forces amid its ongoing conflict in Tigray.

Abiy said Ethiopia had taken delivery of its first 12 Su-35s under an earlier agreement with Russia, with four S-400 batteries to follow, but did not say when the air defence systems would arrive.

Adding further dimension to the story, the aircraft would expand an air force already equipped with Russian fighter jets.

Top Performers

Observers say the significance of what has occurred cannot be understated.

“ They would be best used against conventional air threats, ” Benedict Manzin, a lead analyst on the Middle East and Africa at risk consultancy Sibylline, told Al Jazeera.

Adding to the complexity of the situation, “ Russia has been engaged in Ethiopia for decades, part of the legacy of the Cold War, ” Manzin said.

Reports further indicate that ethiopia ’ s size additionally makes it attractive to competing powers, with experts saying that because it is Africa ’ s second-most populous country, it offers a substantial market.

The Stats

Policymakers, citizens, and institutions will all need to grapple with what comes next.

Manzin suggested Ethiopia is widening its options rather than committing exclusively to Moscow.

It has also emerged that “ China has a huge presence in Ethiopia, and Russian arms have always been a huge factor, ” Manzin indicated.

Meanwhile, sources familiar with the matter indicate that in his statement, Abiy thanked Putin for ensuring the aircraft were delivered a year ahead of schedule and said the equipment would strengthen Ethiopia ’ s ability to “ preemptively deter aggression ”.

It has also emerged that “ Ethiopia is buying a lot of aircraft, ” Manzin said.

Notably, fighting between Ethiopia ’ s federal army and Tigrayan forces intensified in late September, in effect unravelling the November 2022 Pretoria peace agreement that concluded a devastating two-year war.

Next Up

The situation is far from resolved, and additional details are expected to emerge as the story develops. Officials have indicated that further statements may be forthcoming, and observers will be watching closely.